# Kelly Criterion Football Betting Method

In the end, you ‘can’ use Kelly’s Criterion for horse racing but it is best to use an ultra-cautious method of betting. For example, rather than adhering to the maximum Kelly stake, you could reduce your stakes and elect to bet half or even quarter of the recommended wager. There is merit to the idea of using Kelly’s Criterion to get the most out of value bets.

## Daring To Quantify The Markets

No matter what the “wizards” here in the tank say, 99.99%+ of the sports betting Caulfield Container 2022 public cannot use Kelly, no matter which “form” they advocate as they cannot correctly calculate the Bayesian Priors. And the exact sequence of bets could end up busting him flat betting even when it wins with kelly if the losses are frontloaded, but he never mentions that. Time to check the profits from flat betting against the record of the Kelly criterion, and ta-daa!

Mr. Mowery correctly highlights that his fund’s use of Kelly helps increase portfolio potential returns and reduce behavioral bias. The later aspect of behavioral bias is the benefit I find to be the most important attribute of adopting a process for sizing positions. Basic questions like, “how much can we make, what is the downside risk, and what are the probabilities of each”, must be answered before any asset is placed in the portfolio.

## Kellybankroll, Odds, Probability, Fractional?

Statistical inference might be thought of as gambling theory applied to the world around us. The myriad applications for logarithmic information measures tell us precisely how to take the best guess in the face of partial informative post information. In that sense, information theory might be considered a formal expression of the theory of gambling. It is no surprise, therefore, that information theory has applications to games of chance. Neither the original Kelly article ever made a single mention of Bayes, yet Wreck here asserts that the formula can’t be used unless you calculate Bayesian Priors. Not being able to calculate edge accurately is why a lot of people use fractional Kelly as this moderates the effect of miscalculating it and also makes it easier to ignore the effect of simultaneous betting.